Eye On The Market

So Long Yellow Brick Road

An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors

Food fights at the Fed and in the Leveraged Loan market

The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due to the erosion of covenants.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Lost in space: The search for democratic socialism in the real world

Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Listen when people tell you who they are

Trump has been telling us who he is all along; I should have listened. A story in pictures.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use.  https://jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm  © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Smoot Hardly

Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use.  jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Fed Zeppelin: Is the Fed making a mistake?

The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use.  jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Mountains and molehills: Achievements and distractions on the road to decarbonization

Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Short People: the market rebound, and what comes next

Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The Decline of Western Centralization, Part II

For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks. While we expect US GDP and profits to continue to rise in 2019, unresolved trade issues, slowing global growth and a move by the Trump administration away from its 2017 market-friendly policies are likely to cap a post-correction rebound. All things considered, it looks like a volatile, positive single-digit year for diversified portfolios in 2019.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Good luck with that

In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.

*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. a Member of FINRA. The views and opinions expressed herein constitutes Michael Cembalest’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., its employees, subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Views may not be suitable for all investors, and are not intended as personal investment, tax, legal accounting advice or as a solicitation or recommendation. Outlooks and Past Performance are never guarantees of future results. This is not investment research. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or part, without our express permission. We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of its use. jpmorgan.com/disclaimer-eotm © 2018 JPMorgan Chase & Co.