Eye On The Market
Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap

Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap

July 7, 2020

US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.

Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper

Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper

June 28, 2020

While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.

Zoom Room

Zoom Room

May 25, 2020

In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

May 11, 2020

An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

Covid-19 Update

Covid-19 Update

April 17, 2020

Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway.

Man vs Nature

Man vs Nature

March 29, 2020

Michael discusses what the government can and can not fix during a pandemic. In particular, he walks through US high frequency manufacturing and consumer data, the Fed measures, the studies on Chloroquine, and infection outbreak prediction models.

COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets

COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets

March 23, 2020

Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in.

Berning Man

Berning Man

March 5, 2020

An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago? This week's note includes some charts and exhibits to think about.

Millions and Trillions

Millions and Trillions

February 5, 2020

Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

Rotten Tomatoes

Rotten Tomatoes

January 17, 2020

Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.