Eye On The Market

Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on growth, the impact of Chinese critical mineral export restrictions, Oracle’s debt levels and borrowing capacity, central bank gold reserves and the gender balance of psychiatric medication.

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In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in China to reduce excess capacity and consequences for equity investors; crime and municipal solvency in Chicago and Illinois; how tight net new equity supply has been supporting US equity markets since 2011; and pictures from Chilliwack, Canada.

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Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census and the balance in the US House of Representatives.

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Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.

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Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past.

Explore our insights

Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits. Why would lightly regulated stablecoins be any different?

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A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.

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With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.

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Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his core businesses, we take an early look at DOGE’s impact on US government spending, the likely overestimation of estimated savings, negative fiscal feedback loops from firing IRS workers, conflicts of interest and possible consequences of DOGE spending cuts. Also: the latest data from the Trump Tracker and some comments on the Spanish power outage.

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Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.

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