Episodes
Tuesday May 17, 2022
Bear Market Barometers
Tuesday May 17, 2022
Tuesday May 17, 2022
The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.
Wednesday May 11, 2022
The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles
Wednesday May 11, 2022
Wednesday May 11, 2022
We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmire
Wednesday May 11, 2022
The Elephants in the Room
Wednesday May 11, 2022
Wednesday May 11, 2022
We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
Surveying the Damage
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong and the latest on ivermectin
Monday Mar 07, 2022
China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Monday Mar 07, 2022
Monday Mar 07, 2022
The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag on the rest of the world as well. But before getting into it, the chart below should hang in the offices of policymakers everywhere. Energy transitions are inherently slow moving, particularly when citizens of countries adopting them erect NIMBY barriers along the way (a topic we cover in this year’s forthcoming energy paper). As we have discussed often, capital spending by the world’s largest energy companies has fallen 75% from peak levels while global demand for oil, gas and coal are all at or above pre-COVID levels. Countries that reduced their supply of thermal energy at a much faster pace than they reduced their demand are paying a very stiff price for that right now. We expect some about-face movements on this in the days ahead.
Friday Mar 04, 2022
Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors
Friday Mar 04, 2022
Friday Mar 04, 2022
Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.
Tuesday Feb 15, 2022
Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine
Tuesday Feb 15, 2022
Tuesday Feb 15, 2022
Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers
Monday Dec 06, 2021
Middle Ages
Monday Dec 06, 2021
Monday Dec 06, 2021
On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.
Monday Nov 15, 2021
Wednesday Oct 20, 2021
Help Wanted
Wednesday Oct 20, 2021
Wednesday Oct 20, 2021
“Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result, growth should rebound in 2022, and positions that benefit from reflation should benefit (energy, value and cyclicals). However, while goods bottlenecks will dissipate, the US will still face tight labor markets and rising wages that are at odds with current Fed policy