Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
Episodes
Monday Nov 09, 2020
Monday Nov 09, 2020
For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing Democrats and Republicans; it looks like divided government may remain. So, in this week’s Eye on the Market, a (possibly) divided government investor playbook. To conclude, comments on this morning’s Pfizer vaccine news and the road to herd immunity (approval, distribution and acceptance).
Tuesday Oct 13, 2020
Tuesday Oct 13, 2020
The problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equity market impacts and trends that are being priced in as Democratic Sweep odds rise; Vaccine timing & virus-sensitive businesses.
Wednesday Sep 30, 2020
Wednesday Sep 30, 2020
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
Friday Sep 04, 2020
Friday Sep 04, 2020
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General.
Monday Aug 17, 2020
Monday Aug 17, 2020
US virus decline plateaus; UK is a long way from herd immunity; A post-COVID US housing shift to less dense locations with cheaper land; Lost in Translation: T-cell knowns and unknowns, and financial industry co-conspirators in the war on science.
Wednesday Jul 29, 2020
Wednesday Jul 29, 2020
US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd immunity.
Tuesday Jul 07, 2020
Tuesday Jul 07, 2020
US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.
Sunday Jun 28, 2020
Sunday Jun 28, 2020
While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage, reforestation and carbon sequestration required to make an impact; and the financial, political and environmental risks to US energy independence.
Monday May 25, 2020
Monday May 25, 2020
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
Monday May 11, 2020
Monday May 11, 2020
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.