Eye On The Market

Medical Complications

This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.

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Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises

A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien

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Outlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats Dominoes

The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets.

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Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook Overview

Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.

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It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review

A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit

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Not That 70’s Show

Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets

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New York, Just Like I Pictured It

Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.

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What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment.

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The Rasputin Effect

Global resilience to higher rates

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Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

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